03175nas a2200337   4500008004100000022001400041245016700055210006900222260001200291490000700303520202400310653001702334653003702351653002302388653001102411653001102422653001302433653001402446100001702460700002702477700002802504700002602532700003202558700001602590700003202606700001902638700003302657700003202690700003102722856008402753       2020                        eng d  a1676-061100aDrivers of change in biodiversity and ecosystem services in the Cantareira System Protected Area : A prospective analysis of the implementation of public policies0 aDrivers of change in biodiversity and ecosystem services in the   c05/20200 v203 aThe lack of implementation of well-designed public policies aimed at the conservation of natural ecosystems has resulted, at a global level, in the decline of ecosystem functioning and, consequently, of the contributions they make to people. The poor enforcement of important environmental legislation in Brazil - for instance, the “Atlantic Forest Law” (Law n.11.428/2006) and the “Forest Code” (Law n.12.651/2012) - could compromise the overall maintenance of ecosystems and the services they provide. To explore the implications of different levels of federal laws’ enforcement within the Cantareira System Protected Area (PA) - a PA in southeastern Brazil that provides fresh water for 47% of the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area -, we developed a conceptual framework to identify indirect and direct drives of biodiversity and ecosystem changes. We also projected four land-use scenarios to 2050 to test the effects of deforestation control and forest restoration practices on biodiversity and ecosystem services maintenance: the “business-as-usual” scenario (BAU), which assumes that all trends in land-use cover changes observed in the past will continue in the future, and three alternative exploratory scenarios considering the Atlantic Forest Law implementation, the partial implementation of the Forest Code and the full implementation of the Forest Code. Using the land-use maps generated for each scenario, we assessed the impacts of land-use changes on biodiversity conservation and soil retention. Our results revealed all alternative scenarios could increase biodiversity conservation (by 7%; 12%; and 12%, respectively), reduce soil loss (by 24.70%; 34.70%; and 38.12%, respectively) and sediment exportation to water (by 27.47%; 55.06%; and 59.28%, respectively), when compared to the BAU scenario. Our findings highlight the importance of restoring and conserving native vegetation for the maintenance and improvement of biodiversity conservation and for the provision of ecosystem services.10aBiodiversity10aCantareira System Protected Area10aEcosystem services10aGLOBIO10aInVEST10aModeling10aScenarios1 aDib, Viviane1 aNalon, Marco, Aurélio1 aAmazonas, Nino, Tavares1 aVidal, Cristina, Yuri1 aOrtiz-Rodríguez, Iván, A.1 aDaněk, Jan1 ade Oliveira, Maíra, Formis1 aAlberti, Paola1 ada Silva, Rafaela, Aparecida1 aPrecinoto, Raíza, Salomão1 aGomes, Taciana, Figueiredo  uhttps://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1676-0603202000050020102440nas a2200313   4500008004100000022001400041245009900055210006900154260001200223490001300235520142800248653001401676653001301690653003101703653002601734653003001760653002701790653002301817653002401840100003201864700002001896700002101916700003301937700002401970700002701994700001802021700001602039856007102055       2020                        eng d  a1755-087400aSpatiotemporal effects of Hurricane Ivan on an endemic epiphytic orchid: 10 years of follow-up0 aSpatiotemporal effects of Hurricane Ivan on an endemic epiphytic  c10/20190 v13, 20203 aBackground: Hurricanes have a strong influence on the ecological dynamics and structure of tropical forests. Orchid populations are especially vulnerable to these perturbations due to their canopy exposure and lack of underground storage organs and seed banks.

Aims: We evaluated the effects of Hurricane Ivan on the population of the endemic epiphytic orchid Encyclia bocourtii to propose a management strategy.

Methods: Using a pre- and post-hurricane dataset (2003–2013), we assessed the population asymptotic and transient dynamics. We also identified the individual size-stages that maximise population inertia and E. bocourtii’s spatial arrangement relative to phorophytes and other epiphytes.

Results: Hurricane Ivan severely affected the survival and growth of individuals of E. bocourtii, and caused an immediate decline of the population growth rate from λ = 1.05 to λ = 0.32, which was buffered by a population reactivity of ρ1 = 1.42. Our stochastic model predicted an annual population decrease of 14%. We found an aggregated spatial pattern between E. bocourtii and its host trees, and a random pattern relative to other epiphytes.

Conclusion: Our findings suggest that E. bocourtii is not safe from local extinction. We propose the propagation and reintroduction of reproductive specimens, the relocation of surviving individuals, and the establishment of new plantations of phorophytes.
10aCaribbean10acyclones10aintegral projection models10amanagement strategies10aplant population dynamics10astochastic growth rate10atransfer functions10atransient behaviour1 aOrtiz-Rodríguez, Iván, A.1 aRaventós, Jose1 aMújica, Ernesto1 aGonzález-Hernández, Elaine1 aVega-Peña, Ernesto1 aOrtega-Larrocea, Pilar1 aBonet, Andreu1 aMerow, Cory  uhttps://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17550874.2019.1673495